Safe investment in a risky market

Stock market has been unstable for a while now, IIP numbers were better in comparison of the last months but standalone, they too don’t present a very good picture of the economy in short term. In the current global scenarios, when there has been unrest in the Middle East and Tsunami along with earthquake in Japan, expecting stock market to deliver good in the short run is expecting too much.

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Stock Idea- Voltas LTD

In the series of our stock pick, I now present Voltas. Voltas has gone through a lot of beating. Stock Market at large has been go through a lot of pain. Turmoil in middle east, economical recovery in the west and series of scams are mainly responsible for that. There are lot good stock which has taken the beating.

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IIP numbers analysis

IIP number for the month of January 2011 has been released. They stand at 3.5 per cent against 1.6 per cent of the December. They are better than expected. Manufacturing output which constitutes about 80 per cent to the total IIP data is increased to 3.3 per cent. Indian export has also increased to $20.6 billion as per data released by the government.

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Is recovery in west bad for Indian stock market?

With the economical recovery in western countries, especially Europe, Indian stock markets are witnessing a withdrawal of funds by Foreign Institutional Investors. FIIs investment in January 2011 was 48 per cent lesser than their investment in the same period in 2010. Analysts are busying in stock picks but if FIIs continued to shift their funds from Indian stock market then stock exchanges can plunge further.

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How to tackle this market?

Markets ended on a high note today with Sensex ended at 18441.11 up 218.44 points or 1.20 per cent and National Stock Exchange s Nifty closed at 5521.90, up 58.75 points or 1.08 per cent. Markets were upbeat after the crude dropped by $2/barrel and news that OPEC is taking steps to boost production. Markets so far in this year have been trading in this fashion. They will fall sharply on some negative news and then they will recover from there to hit the resistance. After hitting resistance, they will fall again.

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Market tanked in the back drop of geo political situation

Market today had a bad session when Sensex closed at 18223 down by 264 points and Nifty lost 76 points to close at 5463. Markets opened lower in the morning and traded weak throughout the day. Market breadth was extremely weak and selling was witnessed across the sectors. Though, market saw some buying interest in the later part of the day which helped it in recovering from its lowest points of day.

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Stock idea- Adani Enterprises

In this phase of bear market, having a long term view is very important.  Markets are expected to roam in the same range for next few months. We have seen  how markets have risen and fallen for few hundred points in one day, So one can  simply make and break the fortune in one day but there are few stocks which  deliver good return over a period of next few months.

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Indian $2 Trillion story

India is set to join the elite club of economies in the world. Indian economy would grow to $2 trillion. There are only seven other countries in the world which are having economy over $2 trillion and they are USA, Japan, Germany, China, UK, France and Italy. As per the recent budget, indian economy would cross $2 trillion by March 2012.  As per the budget, Indian economy is expected to grow at 8.75 per cent to 9.5 per cent. India is also expected to outpace China in being the world’s fastest growing nation.
So what does that mean for stock market? Indian growth story is result of its population and their consumption. In the last few years, Indian economy has been growing consistently around a rate of 8 per cent. It initially started with growth in the urban economical centre but gradually it expanded to the smaller cities. With the increased penetration, more and more people are getting benefit and consumption has been growing up. Most of the sectors are beneficiaries of this growth.
Their earnings are consistently increasing. This lead to the industrial development and creation of jobs for educated class. Now this growth story is further expanding to rural India. Though, penetration is still low and the expansion pace is not very fast but it doesn’t provide a huge space for the growth in future. Better economy will bring more people under the umbrella of economical growth and this will take the company’s earning.
It is very important to figure out the sectors which are getting most of it. For example, auto, pharmaceutical and health care industry. They have growing rapidly and auto companies are consistely posting greater sales numbers. They are not able to satisfy the demand and there are long waiting period for most of the successful models. This is a mere example of how a sector can gain from economical boom.
And this is the case with most of the sector which are directly related to the mass consumption by the people. It should not be hard enough to figure out the good companies in these sectors and invest in them.

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ADX

ADX was developed by Welles Wilder.The ADX is a indicator which indicates whether market is trending or moving in a range. ADX tell about a market’s strength. This can help in avoiding weak market and staying in market for longer when it is trending to enhance gains. It doesn’t tells anything about market prices. It just tells about the strength of the current trend. It indicates the directional strength rather than it strength.

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Market outlook in short term

Markets have surged up like a rocket after union budget announcement. Budget is neutral so  there is no specific reason why market should surge like this. Markets rose for  second consecutive days with Sensex closing at   18446.50  up by 623.10 and Nifty closed at   5522.30  up by 189.05 points.  Stock  markets witnesses a spectacular rally and auto along with banking stocks were  the hottest picks. This is the highest single day gain in last two years. But  still most of the analyst are skeptical about this rally and suggest caution.

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Is it time to buy?

Week ended at low note with Sensex losing 295.30 and closing at 18,211.52. Nifty lost 87.50 to close at 5,458.95. Market had good run in the first few days but after that it went through a sideway and then finally ended week on a low note. Market has been in a downtrend for sometime and last week pull back rally bought the investors back but rally was cut short by Friday’s fall. There are mixed opinions about indian markets. There is lot of confusion right now which leads to these falls after every few positive days.

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